Paul Ryan
Paul Ryan has said very well what many on the Conservative side of the argument feel – this isn’t the final straw, not by a LONG shot. With the budget battle now looming up among other things, this is just the beginning.
Michael Barone wrote a fantastic article about how we have to win two elections in order to really effect the changes that we want to make. 2010 was a great start to taking out not only the leftists and their socialistic bent, but to also remove many of the people who were masquerading as conservatives and hiding their spending bent on the right. But it wasn’t enough, by far.
Thomas Sowell wrote another terrific piece regarding the same discussion that has been going on on our show for some time – is this the best deal we could get? Heck no. We want 4-5 trillion in this cut and the 6 trillion dollar cutting Ryan Budget too. Is it likely to happen in this scenario before 2012? No. Thomas Sowell writes, in Ideas vs Realities, about the whole debate between the people who see the slow approach as barely palatable but a reason to keep pushing versus the people who see that the whole problem, created in 90 years, must be solved today in one fell swoop.
We saw Ryan’s plan fail in the Senate, the repeal bill the House sent fail, we saw an attempt to lower the budget before fall to much lower numbers than we wanted due to the Senate not being able to cut 60 billion away from this years spending, and we saw two larger bills fail during the debt crisis.
Instead of 3 trillion, we are going to see about 2.4 trillion, though as Kent Conrad even said – and I about fell out of my chair when he did – the 1.5 trillion the committee needs to shoot for is only a floor – not a ceiling. In a release earlier today he even stated that we need to aim closer to 4 trillion.
At that point you ask yourself how genuine that kind of talk was when Kent Conrad supported tabling of all the bills the GOP sent over to cut 6 and 3 trillion.
There are cuts, there are caps, as Paul Ryan will explain in the video, and there is a Balanced Budget Amendment that will have to be voted on before the end of the year. As Rep. Ryan will state – the caps are a miracle unto themselves.
Rep. Ryan does go on to explain how the leadership in the Bush White House, as we’ve often talked about on our show, has had some bad legislation they allowed themselves to be bullied into – NCLB and Medicare Part D were two that we have beaten up on Bush for ourselves – and he has some interesting information on how some of that worked behind the scenes.
One thing – this was NOT the budget. This was a cut to spending. This wasn’t the budget deal, and now THAT battle has to take place. Then the battle has to take place in November for the committee to run the numbers and issue a report to have the Congress vote on.
This is not a short term battle, no matter what anyone might say on any side of this spectrum. As Rep. Ryan says – this keeps the hounds at bay until 2012 where we can make some really great changes, bolster conservative leadership and take the Senate and the White House. Realize that the credit houses also said something in their statements about a uniting in a will to get a deal done – that on top of everything else it wasn’t really the numbers they were looking at but the willingness to accomplish something.
If we had waited – Obama could have made sure we defaulted on the interest payments, making sure our ratings went down, creating an issue where for every 100 basis points (1%) we had to pay more for the money we borrow – 100 billion in new interest payments every year per 1% (and the money isn’t borrowed in chunks – countries and people buy our debt all the time in little dribs and drabs – that’s how they make the money they do – they can move on a new situation quickly that way). In the Ken Langone video we had up – he states the same thing – if we ended up having to pay above the falsely low interest rates of today – 2-3% would equal 200-300 billion more every year in new interest payments – in other words, doubling what we pay today.
If we waited and didn’t have a deal and Obama paid the interest on time – the ratings agencies could have dropped us anyway BECAUSE we didn’t have a deal, pushing the interest rates up anyway and created the same issue. The extra 200 billion doesn’t sound like much until you realize that in 10 years that is 2 trillion dollars more – and THAT goes directly against the grain of some who want to lower the debt no matter what. That “no surrender” position could very well have expanded the debt. Think of it this way – Greece and Portugal’s interest payments are now 5-6% higher than they were before they were downgraded 4 positions.
On top of that – when the market took a dive in 2008 and into 2009? We lost somewhere around the order of 9 trillion in wealth in this country – both among the “fat cats” and people with retirement accounts that invested in the market. If the plan continued to drag along without a solution, or worse, if the credit of the United States went down 3-4-5 notches – we could have had a double dip in the market that might have taken us back down 3-4 thousand points. This would have affected everyone, and this would have crushed the economy for some time to come. Economists and market analysts alike were all saying the same thing. It could have been very, very bad.
When the wealth goes away – so does the revenue, enhancing our debt problems as well. Just look at the revenue now – 2 trillion versus when private sector spending was going crazy in the middle of the Bush years and government revenue was 3.5 trillion. If you allow the business to get hit with a loss of wealth that way again? Revenue WOULD have dropped to a low we haven’t seen in decades and it WOULD have put us even further behind the 8 ball.
Click to enlarge - Please note that the green goes up before it goes down
Even the lauded Ryan plan? Won’t do it for some folks because even though it has the chance to have us at a SURPLUS – a real live surplus and not a surplus for a year – but a real live Federal surplus with NO debt in 30 years? It has deficit spending at first because you can’t just lop things off without serious consequences – like losing hundreds of thousands of taxpayers (government workers) and higher unemployment when people already can’t find jobs due to thousands applying for the same job. More money out, less revenue in. More debt.
Bluntly – this stopped a catastrophe, but it didn’t solve the problem by even a nibble.
This is not a time to become a house divided amongst ourselves. This is a time to realize that we all want the same thing, but some realize that this is a chess game and not something that can happen as quickly as we like. Did the people who understand this want more? Of course we did.
Should friendships and political alliances be shattered because this bill didn’t reach the heights some felt it should and some people understand why?
Only if we don’t look at the long haul.
And the long haul should be the Senate and White House in 2012.
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3 Responses to “Paul Ryan – This Is A Downpayment – Not The Final Move In The Game”
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Another committee to accomplish the same thing other committees accomplish – ABSOLUTELY NOTHING GOOD ! ! ! And a VOTE on a balanced budget – no requirement to PASS a Balanced Budget ! So BIG DEAL. Just another bill full of more hot air than constructive substance! Wow! Should I stand up and clap now? What I’m going to do is write and call EVERY “YES” voter and VOTE. So are my friends! Our country cannot survive this much longer. The Dow has dropped 800 points in just a matter of days. Our elected officials, from the top down are useless for anything except destroying this country ! ! !
This wasn’t a game. The long haul? Thirty years? At this rate, we won’t have a country much longer. Numbers are coming out in the next few days revealing we are in the double dip recession currently. Moody’s played a total game here, threatening to downgrade until this evening and then said the deal did it for them. This bill proves a government we can’t trust will be responsible? Well I hope that, as you put it “the people who understand this” are right. I guess the rest of us are just dumb. But history proves you wrong. Every great Republic and empire has fallen because of these problems. This bill clearly cuts only $22 billion in first year, caps future spending and leaves us at Obama triple threat levels, furthers the “cause” of the BBA (Did you read Boehner’s language, no guarantee of BBA just a furthering of “cause”?) and leaves our economy in the hands of 7 people who are not chosen by the people but our corrupted leaders. Yeah I trust these people to get it done. Paul Ryan’s budget was not great either and now I really doubt his judgement with his support of this. They all better hope this ousts Obama rather than makes him look good. I have a feeling it will be an epic fail, so perhaps it will be good in the long run. One thing is for sure, Boehner proved to be a panty waist leader leading his party to fight against itself rather than Obama and handing Obama the money he wanted and helping him ride through the election. Fabulous!
First – we can parse words like game to no end. That solves nothing nor does it mean anything other than I picked an analogy you don’t like. Ok – cool.
Second – Moody’s played a game? They said in their report before the deal that one of the biggest keys, numbers notwithstanding was a sign that there was a will to do something to stop the spending – to turn the corner. In my show tonight I explained that I didn’t believe this was anything more than a toe in the water, a first step. To take me on like I am advocating something horrible is not right. I have called for all sorts of cuts – but like Thomas Sowell and others say, there is wants and realities. We have a divided government. What many people SEEM to be saying is – we should have let it lapse – and had Moody’s downgraded us like Egan Jones already did for not even addressing the problem, we could end up paying hundreds of billions more in DEBT each year because of interest rates.
And you know what – there isn’t anything wrong with looking at possibilities – but that is what I keep hearing. I had someone volunteer to knock my teeth out because I didn’t agree with the short term strategy even though I agree with the GOAL.
If you want to take offense at the words the people who understand this – I can’t help that. I know there are people who are a lot more in the know than myself who aren’t attached to the government who say this wasn’t great, but its a start. And that has been my message too. Sorry – I don’t believe that is wrong. It IS a start. Small, but now we go to the budget battle. Then we go on further than that to the November battle on the report. Then the vote on the report.
I played Marco Rubio talking about the differences of opinion not being unpatriotic and that this was going to be a fight that would last years. Not that we are going to collapse tomorrow.
If they don’t vote in the Senate on the BBA – we slam them in the election. There are 23 Senators (plus a couple of REAL RINOS) up this next year – and I fully expect at least 9 to be super vulnerable. Obama will be vulnerable as we will see his numbers tank every time a fight like this comes up.
You supported Ryan wholeheartedly until his budget didn’t cut enough for you and now he’s going to move to the Rino column? He was cutting 6 trillion, balanced by 2025 and moving to surplus by 2040. If you try and cut 15 trillion in 10 years it would be impossible and leave a wake of human debris I don’t think anyone wants.
We are spending 3.7 trillion right now. To get to even steven – you have to cut 1.5 trillion. To get to zero.
If you want to cut the 15 trillion dollar debt in ten years, you have to cut 1.5 trillion off of ZERO.
So – what you and everyone else is asking for is a budget expenditure to go from 3.7 trillion to .7 trillion next year and for the next ten years.
SS? Spends almost .7 trillion per year.
Medicare? Spends almost .8 trillion per year.
Vets benefits? Interest? Unemployment? Defense?
Where do we get 30 trillion in cuts or 3 trillion a year?
We don’t and that is why it is so critical to spread it out over 30 years – so we don’t lay off 500,000 people at once from the govt leaving 500,000 people paying, lets say on average 15,000 in taxes – that is 7.5 billion in just income and payroll taxes. How about all the other things they don’t buy? All that revenue? The taxes from spending comes in at 2.5 times the income taxes. So 500,000 less buyers of goods. Plus we stick them on unemployment – means 2,000,000 a week going out. Plus other bennies. Less revenue, more outgo – more debt.
If we don’t take a measured approach we can make it WORSE.
And why is it that everyone from Jason Chaffetz to Michele Bachmann feel that Boehner has done “spectacular” and “I wouldn’t want to replace him” among other plaudits? Not one Tea Partier has come forward to say so – they all support him.
I guess there are ways around everything I said, but there are ways to go around everything you said as well. Just like a debate
But I can guarantee that whether people like me or not, whether people think I am “real” in my beliefs or not, I can assure you I don’t waver in my chasing of the goal.
Down with Obama in 2012. Make Reid a minority leader in 2012 (and Mitch anything but the majority leader).
If we can do that and THEN they betray us? I’ll be leading in the van with a pitchfork, tar and feathers.
Right now, many people are taking getting a bird in the hand versus two in the bush as a betrayal when it is simply that they can’t get anything done without compromise. But if they compromise us to 5-6-7 trillion in cuts in a town that hasn’t heard of it with 1/3 of the budgetary power tripod – I will take that and keep pushing. And when 2012 comes, by God – they better be out of the gate and working come January 5th (or whatever the hell the first day is) or the day of reckoning will come due to people being on the edge of leaving both parties in droves.
My God – if we could get 2.4 trillion this time, plus say 3-4 trillion in a budget compromise? If the Senate doesn’t vote on a budget – we simply stop appropriating in the House – or trim the bills. But if we can get 5-6 trillion now? Before we have power? And that doesn’t make you feel the slightest bit better?
Let’s see if everything falls apart and everything fails. There are a lot of people I read that say it won’t – and like many people like yourself – I rely on my research.
Diane – I agree with you wholeheartedly on the less spending, less taxes, less intrusion, less government. I wish you would believe me.
If what I say here doesn’t help, I am at a loss as to what to tell you. I did a whole show on this tonight in fact. I have to do some repairs as my signal dropped on me so I have to merge 4-5 video files – but I will have it up and running sometime tomorrow.
Take care of yourself. But be assured – I have facts that I believe as do you – but that doesn’t mean either of us is a fraud or a traitor – it just means we disagree.